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Super3M Sustainability Report Part I

A macroeconomic analysis

By Dr. Aston Martin

Abstract

We live in a world that is imperfect and which will always be imperfect, a world that is complex and confused and which will always be complex and confused; to see through the complexity and the chaos and steer clear on the right course, it is imperative for us to look back in the history and draw learnings from the successful Pyramid Schemes. The objective of this report is to explore and expose the dark side of contemporary history, this report uses historical facts to support the concept that Pyramid Scheme exists among us since fifteen century and a successful Pyramid Scheme can last for centuries, this report then discusses how to use the learnings as the fundamental rules to optimize the Super3M project and achieve the best result and experience to our community members.

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Super3M Sustainability Report Part I

Introduction

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

-George Santayana

Super3M is a project the Vegion team has been prepared and waited to release at the right time, there is never a better time than the present. This report opens with George Santayana’s famous quote, though it is a bit cliché but it is absolutely imperative to emphasize the importance of historical empiricism. It is pivotal to learn from the successful cases in the history.

We live in a world that is imperfect and which will always be imperfect, a world that is complex and confused and which will always be complex and confused; we are mere reflection of the world projecting on us, for this reason, Vegion team remains humble and submit ourselves to the mercy of the global socio-economic condition. A sustainable project does not sorely rely on the external factors, a certain degree of innovation is required to break through the bottle neck of the status quo, after all, to break the rules, we have to master it. For this reason, the objective of this report is to explore and expose the dark side of contemporary history, this report uses historical facts to support the concept that Pyramid Scheme exists among us since fifteen century and a successful Pyramid Scheme can last for centuries.

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A shocking discovery of history

The social welfare system is a Pyramid Scheme

The social welfare system has been in existence for 400 years1, which the system’s functionality is based on population growth. It is the cornerstone of the modern society, yet its underlying logic is of the same to a Pyramid Scheme – Pyramid schemes are based on tiers where new members are at the bottom and the members at the top make the majority of the money. Likewise, the simple rule of thumb for a social welfare system is, we feed the generations of our parents and grandparents in the expectation future generations will come along and do the same for us. The consequence of this arrangement is that one day, the world will end and the last generation of workers will have been cheated of their expectation of a peaceful retirement.

In accordance with Steven Chu2, who argues as the standard of living increases, birth rate declines; so, if we continuously improve our living standard, it is likely the welfare burden per capita on each younger generation is doubled – there will be less young generation feeding more elder generation, this can lead to two repercussions under the assumption that there is no effective way to reshape the global demographic distribution:

  1. Elder generation will continuously demand more medical care resources as they live longer, leading to suppressed medical resources to the young generation;
  1. Young generation will at one point renege the commitment to social welfare on the basis that it is unaffordable.

Neither of these two outcomes are ideal and should be discouraged, as a healthy social welfare system usually possess sufficient resources to sustain itself even there is a

  1. Social welfare system came into existence by the enactment of the Elizabethan Poor Law of 1601 by the Parliament of England. It authorized government provision for the poor residing in local parishes and established a system of obligatory financing outside the church.
  2. United States Secretary of Energy, Professor of Physics and Professor of Molecular and Cellular Physiology at Stanford University and a Nobel Laureate.

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Super3M Sustainability Report Part I

structural change emerging. Hence the abundance of resources provides the time needed for the system to pivot, the only plausible solution is to introduce proportional inflation. The incremental devaluation of money will balance the increasing number of elder generations live on welfare, hence alleviates the medical pressure overall, whilst maintain the social contract between the young and elder generations.

Figure 1. 1970 – 2060 Demographic distribution forecast

The Banking System is a Pyramid Scheme

Debt slavery is a form of bondage resulting from a situation of debtor insolvency. It is not uncommon for the poor people to resign their or their children’s freedom into slavery. It is in fact that in primitive societies, debt instead of war slavery is the main source of slavery trading. In the modern day, the debt slavery is still very much existed, though in a more subtle way – through loan and mortgage.

The world’s first Central Bank, The Swedish Riksbank was founded in 1668, the rule of Fractional Reserve Banking3 was agreed on 10:1 and it has remained till now, this is later known as the Money Supply Reserve Multiplier (MSRM):

  1. Banks accepting deposits from customers and making loans to borrowers while holding in reserve an amount equal to only a fraction of the bank’s deposit liabilities.

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Super3M Sustainability Report Part I

MSRM = RRR1

  • RRR: Reserve Requirement Ratio

In this regard, Commercial Bank can create 10 times of loan in value from the reserve it held at the Central Bank, but things had changed after the Quantum Easing (QE) of Great Recession in 2008 and adaptation of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) in 2020. The banking system has shifted to a pure credit system, which allows the Commercial Bank creates money ex-nihilo, under this new Paradigm, money in circulation is primarily dependent on the demand of loan4. By using Vector Error-Correction Model5 (VECM) to analyze the United States’ Monetary Base from 1959 to 2020, it is deduced that:

Long-run Causality Test (VECM)

Long-run coefficientsLong-run
t-StatisticLag
Independent V.Dependent V.β3Conclusion
LCREDIT* & LDEMDEP*LBM*-0.038969[-9.81204]5LCREDIT & LDEMDE → LBM
LBM & LDEMDEPLCREDIT-0.001395[-0.95459]5

* LDEMDEP: The demand for bank deposits; LBM: The monetary base; LCREDIT: The bank credit

Table 1. VECM long-run Causality Test

  1. This is a combined effort from both the banking sector and Federal government, taking Australia for example, the surge demand and price of real estate is fueled by government subsidies (Home Build Grant & First Home Buyers Grant) and loosen on the Loan Law amidst the COVID pandemic. The Federal government’s subsidies account for the majority part of the deposit paid to the bank.
∆yt=β0+nn
β1iyt−1+β2ixt1 + β3EC− 1+ εtyt= dependent variable;x= independent variable;
5i=1i=1t;t
EC= error – correction termεt= error term.
t 1;
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Super3M Sustainability Report Part I

Short-run Wald Test (VECM)

Short-run coefficientsShort-run
Lag
Independent V.Dependent V.χ 2Conclusion
test
LCREDITLDEMDEP10.851515
LDEMDEPLCREDIT8.4591655LCREDIT → LDEMDEP
LDEMDEPLBM27.547825LDEMDEP ↔ LBM
LBMLDEMDEP67.687455LCREDIT → LBM
LCREDITLBM34.079415
LBMLCREDIT6.0744075

Table 2. VECM short-run Wald Test

From tables above, the United States’ money creation process is driven by the Commercial Bank’s lending activities (not directly from Central Bank’s Monetary Policy). Money in circulation is the residual of money supply process since the monetary base is driven by the demand for and supply of loans. Hence the Commercial Bank is in the sweet spot of debt trapping everyone at no risk, which we have observed from the 2008 and 2020’s financial/economic crisis, the Central Bank will act as the Lender of Last Resort and bail out Commercial Banks.

As long as there is demand for loan, the bank can create money from the loan, the money created is not money in traditional way, but rather, an IOU (I owe You) between the bank and the applicant. Money created this way accounts over 97% of the money in circulation, forming a positive feed – the more IOU money in circulation means the majority of the society is in debt to the bank, and this means more money can be created by the bank; as a result of the Matthew Effect6, this ultimately leads to the flourish of banking industry and the Financialization7 of everything, pushing demand for liquidity and credit ceiling beyond people’s affordable zone, and when the Commercial Bank

  1. It usually means the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, where if one industry can generate wealth relatively easy, then this industry will have excessive resources compare to other industries, this is prominent in the term of “Energy Trap” of many South American countries.
  1. Financialization describes an economic process by which exchange is facilitated through the intermediation of financial instruments. Financialization may permit real goods, services, and risks to be readily exchangeable for currency, and thus make it easier for people to rationalize their assets and income flows.

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cannot fulfill this demand, fringe institutions (usually in the form of usury8) emerge. This is the modern debt slavery in the form of Pyramid Scheme, where Central and Commercial Banks are at the top debt trapping everyone and the fringe institutions are at the middle picking up the demands that exceed the capacity of the Commercial Banks, whist everyone else are at the bottom working for the banking industry.

The financial industry is a Pyramid Scheme

The Dutch invented the idea of offering shares of a company to the public as a way to raise capital in 1602, making the Dutch East India Company (VOC) the first company in history to issue bonds and shares of stock to the general public. This opened the Pandora’s box of excessive financialization, before the COVID19 hit the U.S. stock market, the earning growth is zero outside of the FAANG9.

If most of the listed companies have zero earning growth, the question of how they stay afloat on the market becomes the key question to ask. The answer lies in capital market itself. Start-up entrepreneurs use private investment capital, such as angel investors or venture capital firms, to provide the initial fund to support their ideas and keep their businesses running during the period where they have to spend more than they make in order to take most of the market share. If they succeed in taking out most of their competitors, they can potentially gain full price monopoly and turn their losses around.

The next logical milestone for these companies will be to seek “going public” – by creating Initial Public Offering (IPO), which is the process by a private company issues its first shares of stock for public sale, allowing all the previous investors of the companies to exit through an open market with enough liquidity to capitalize their

  1. Usury is the practice of making unethical or immoral monetary loans that unfairly enrich the lender, where an interest rate is charged in excess of the maximum rate that is allowed by law.
  1. Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX); and Alphabet (GOOG) (formerly known as Google)

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Super3M Sustainability Report Part I

investment. This pathway of capitalization is of close resemblance to a Pyramid Scheme for several reasons:

  1. The initial angel investors and venture capitals purchase the start-up company’s share at the lowest price and sometime for free by offering incubation services to enhance the start-up’s legal, financial, marketing and technical capacity, or at least to make it appear to be the case. In doing so, they can push the start-up to enter the next round of funding at a higher price, the bottom tiers are always paying a higher price than the upper tier.
  1. For the bottom tier to profit, they also need to contribute to the start-up by utilizing their resources so that the start-up can either enter another round of funding or go IPO, where all the earlier investors can dump their stocks to the market.
  2. This process creates the issue of the “Zombie” company10, where the start-up’s success is not measure by the profit it makes, rather its market share. It is completely “normal” for these start-ups never make profit as long as there are more bottom tiers willing to enter to the scheme at premium prices for the company’s shares.
  1. If the start-up still cannot make profit after the IPO, it will be under scrutinization by the public and cause the stock price plummets, if they still cannot find new way of fund their operation before their reserve runs out, traditionally there are two options, either they can enter voluntary administration to restructure their debt and cause ordinary investors lose their money and the newly restructured company can

re-enter the capital market for more funding as they are now “healthier”11. Or they can use “innovative accounting” to make the company appears to be profitable and drive up the stock market confidence12.

  1. The recent collapse of WeWork in 2019 is a prime example where an overhyped, non-original idea was overvalued to $47 billion.
  2. Donald Trump is the prime example of this method, where he has filed for corporate bankruptcy four times, in 1991, 1992, 2004 and 2009. All of these bankruptcies were connected to over-leveraged casino and hotel properties in Atlantic City, causing his investors lost billions.
  3. Enron is the prime example of this method, which they were able to get away from “cooking the book” between 1990 and 1998.

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Super3M Sustainability Report Part I

Discussion

It is an unfortunate and unpalatable discovery that the world we are living in is an Matryoshka of Pyramid Schemes. There is neither a way out, nor a solution to solve it, therefore If you can’t beat them, join them. We have witnessed from phenomena above that if managed properly, a Pyramid Scheme can last a very long time, in fact, in the private sectors, the alternative form of Pyramid Scheme – Multi Level Marketing (MLM) has been in existence for century, such as Avon and Amway started their practice in 1886 and 1959 respectively.

It is deduced that Pyramid Scheme has been utilized by governments, banks and financial industry for centuries, many schemes are still running to date and they are the cornerstone of the modern society. Hence it can be proven that the Pyramid Scheme model is a working model, the sustainability of the model depends on the size, growth rate and simplicity of the schemes as discussed below.

The bigger the better – Peto’s Paradox

The common characteristic of the social welfare, banking and financial industry is that they possess a significant amount of resources. Being big definitely provides benefit to the sustainability of these schemes, it can be proven biologically through the Peto’s Paradox.

Naturally, if all else being equal, one would expect that large-bodied, long-lived animals would have a greater probability of carcinogenesis than small, short-lived ones. But when Peto looked into cancer incidence in some of these animals, that’s not what he found. This seemingly counterintuitive phenomenon was dubbed Peto’s paradox, which number of cells within an organism is inversely proportional to its propensity to develop cancer. In terms of the Pyramid Scheme, if a scheme is big enough and live long enough,

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it is less likely to collapse, even when rarely anyone is joining the scheme (the world population is forecasted to cap at 11 billion by Hans Rosling13 and hence the social welfare system needs a reform), the scheme can still be self-reliance through proper management of inflation as shown in the social welfare system.

The rationale behind this Paradox is the existence of hypertumor – a tumor’s tumors. Cancer can be seen as a breakdown of cooperation among cells, huge cancer collectives can form tumor, which can be very hard to kill. The only issue with tumor is, the cancer cells are usually unstable and prone to mutate, therefore by probability, over time there should be a mutated cancer cell stopped cooperating, and this amalgamation of “new” cancer cells will start to undermine its predecessor and competes for the scared resources. This is the formation of the hypertumor, which will reduce the overall fitness of the prime tumor and may cause the tumor to regress. It is arguable that the lethal tumor must be drastically larger in larger animals, giving the hypertumor more time to evolve and force the prime tumor to become necrotic. Hence the large animals would often carry macroscopic tumors which should be disproportionately more necrotic when compare to lethal tumors in smaller organisms.

Same analogy applies to the social welfare system, if the external situation remains constant, as long as the welfare system is big enough, over time, its problem will get big enough to grow its own problem, making the problem stop become life-threatening to the social welfare system. Same analogy should also apply to the Super3M project, where growing its size is the key objective of the project, the more members Super3M has, the more sustain it will become. And for this reason, Super3M has developed two distinct programs to enhance its sustainability through building a large “organism”:

  1. Invitation reward is a one-off reward only valid to Followers you personally invited, you receive 10% of the Followers’ first round Contribution.
  1. Hans Rosling is a Swedish academic and scientist who came to popular fame as a TED speaker. He concluded the world population growth should hit a limit around 11 billion within the next hundred years, as the world equalizes in health outcomes.

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  1. Leader reward comprises two tiers, the two tiers’ rewards are NOT mutually exclusive.
  1. The Professional tiers allows you to gain percentage of Followers’ Contribution as profit up to 15 levels;
  1. The Management tiers allows you to further gain percentage of Followers’ Contribution of the day as profit.

The modest the profit the better – The Dutch Way

From a cross-nation perspective, Netherland is considered to be the most income equality country yet with the highest wealth inequality. This is because Netherland is the birthplace of capitalism and over the past 400 years, there was no major war against Netherland, allowing the economy to progress in a slow but steady way. It is important to note that a steady and sustainable growth over a longer period outperform fast but short-lived growth. Assuming following two scenarios:

  1. Scenario 1: 10% annual profit over 100 years, compounding interest rate
  1. Scenario 2: 100% annual profit over 10 years, compounding interest rate

Scenario 1 =1×(100% +10%)1001 =1,252,783% Scenario 2 =1×(100% +100%)101 = 51,200%

It clearly shows Scenario 1 is the winner, same as the examples depicted above, if an organization can last itself over several decades, it will create immense amount of wealth. From a business perspective, Warren Buffet grows his business from $6,000 to $73 billion over the course of 60 years – an average annual growth rate of 20,277% or an average compound growth rate of 31.25%.

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Therefore, it is important for Super3M to lower the short-term profit so that it can last longer to achieve an overall higher profit. The Super3M has settled its profit rate to 12% per round with an incremental round-delay mechanism, a detailed profit forecast is outlined below for maximum and minimum contribution.

Maximize Contribution to $10,000 (Super3M)

RoundInvestmentSunken PrincipalProfitAggregate ProfitNet ProfitDaysAggregate Days
1$2,000$1,000$240$240($760)1010
2$4,000$2,000$480$720($1,280)1020
3$6,000$3,000$720$1,440($1,560)1131
4$8,000$4,000$960$2,400($1,600)1142
5$10,000$5,000$1,200$3,600($1,400)1254
6$10,000$5,000$1,200$4,800($200)1266
7$10,000$5,000$1,200$6,000$1,0001379
8$10,000$5,000$1,200$7,200$2,2001392
9$10,000$5,000$1,200$8,400$3,40014106
10$10,000$5,000$1,200$9,600$4,60014120
11$10,000$5,000$1,200$10,800$5,80015135
12$10,000$5,000$1,200$12,000$7,00015150
13$10,000$5,000$1,200$13,200$8,20016166
14$10,000$5,000$1,200$14,400$9,40016182
15$10,000$5,000$1,200$15,600$10,60017199
16$10,000$5,000$1,200$16,800$11,80017216
17$10,000$5,000$1,200$18,000$13,00018234
18$10,000$5,000$1,200$19,200$14,20018252
19$10,000$5,000$1,200$20,400$15,40019271
20$10,000$5,000$1,200$21,600$16,60019290
21$10,000$5,000$1,200$22,800$17,80020310
22$10,000$5,000$1,200$24,000$19,00020330
23$10,000$5,000$1,200$25,200$20,20021351
24$10,000$5,000$1,200$26,400$21,40021372
Annual Profit210%

Table 3. Annual return for maximum Contribution

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Maintain minimum Contribution of $2,000 (Super3M)

RoundInvestmentSunken PrincipalProfitAggregate ProfitNet ProfitDaysAggregate Days
1$2,000$1,000$240$240($760)1010
2$2,000$1,000$240$480($520)1020
3$2,000$1,000$240$720($280)1131
4$2,000$1,000$240$960($40)1142
5$2,000$1,000$240$1,200$2001254
6$2,000$1,000$240$1,440$4401266
7$2,000$1,000$240$1,680$6801379
8$2,000$1,000$240$1,920$9201392
9$2,000$1,000$240$2,160$1,16014106
10$2,000$1,000$240$2,400$1,40014120
11$2,000$1,000$240$2,640$1,64015135
12$2,000$1,000$240$2,880$1,88015150
13$2,000$1,000$240$3,120$2,12016166
14$2,000$1,000$240$3,360$2,36016182
15$2,000$1,000$240$3,600$2,60017199
16$2,000$1,000$240$3,840$2,84017216
17$2,000$1,000$240$4,080$3,08018234
18$2,000$1,000$240$4,320$3,32018252
19$2,000$1,000$240$4,560$3,56019271
20$2,000$1,000$240$4,800$3,80019290
21$2,000$1,000$240$5,040$4,04020310
22$2,000$1,000$240$5,280$4,28020330
23$2,000$1,000$240$5,520$4,52021351
24$2,000$1,000$240$5,760$4,76021372
Annual Profit234%

Table 4. Annual return for minimum Contribution

It is calculated the Super3M gives a 210% and 234% average annual growth rate, or 6.38% and 7.34% average compound growth rate for maximum and minimum Contribution, which is very modest compare to Warren Buffet. With this level of profit rate, Super3M is hence extremely scalable without the risk of bank run.

The simpler the better – Entropy, Chaos Theory and Occam’s Razor

The common characteristic of the social welfare, banking and financial industry is that their underlying mandates are all very simple; for the social welfare system, it’s having

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the young generation pays for the welfare of the elder generation. For the banking system, it is using fractional reserve banking to generate interest revenue from mass population. For the finance industry, it’s expanding the start-ups’ market share to enter the next round.

The Second Law of Thermodynamics depicts the spontaneous evolution of an isolated system can never lead to a decrease of its entropy14. The entropy is always increasing as long as the system evolves. If the system eventually reaches equilibrium and stops evolving, its entropy becomes constant. In other words, an isolated system, deprived of any help from the outside, is incapable of putting its own affairs in order. At best it can let the level of disorder creep up very slowly. At worst the disorder will worsen rapidly until it becomes total, which is the equilibrium state, the state of maximum entropy (disorder). The Second Law of Thermodynamics applies in the business world too, a project usually started with simple ideas and continuously evolve and increases its complexity (and its entropy), when the project becomes too convoluted, it reaches its maximum entropy (disorder) and subsequently leads to its demise.

We can assume a project is a complex system with following characteristics:

  1. Complex systems contain many constituents interacting nonlinearly;
  1. The constituents of a complex system are interdependent;
  1. A complex system possesses a structure spanning several scales.

Hence with this assumption, we can deduce that the Chaos Theory dictated the evolution of a complex system, where complexity occurs “at the edge of chaos”. Indeed, a small variation in initial conditions can yield widely diverging outcomes for a complex system, rendering long-term prediction of the system. In another word, the more complex a system becomes, it will have more constituents (variables) that acts in a non-linear and interdependent way, which makes prediction of future development

  1. Entropy is a scientific concept, as well as a measurable physical property that is most commonly associated with a state of disorder, randomness, or uncertainty.

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impossible. In accordance with the Murphy’s law – anything that can go wrong will go wrong, as a system becomes more complex, it becomes increasingly unpredictable and the possibility of it goes wrong will grow exponentially.

It is imperative for the Vegion team to realize that human is unreliable as human can easily fall into the complexity bias15. Therefore, it is pivotal for the Vegion team to leave the project that is already fine-tuned alone – to lock-in its entropy and hence delay the speed it reaches the maximum disorder caused by the butterfly effect of Chaos Theory.

With the understanding of entropy, Chaos Theory and Murphy’s law in mind, we skimmed and reconstructed the Super3M project multiple times under the principle of Occam’s Razor16, ensuring we drop all the unnecessary rules, models and algorithm, in a way to effectively reduce variables and once we are satisfied with the model, we uploaded the algorithm on the blockchain to permanently lock the rules and model, this effectively ensure the simplicity of the project, and hence the longevity of the project.

Conclusion

To understand how the society we reside really work, we closely examine the social welfare, banking and financial industry and concluded their underlying logic is of no difference to a Pyramid Scheme. As frustrated as we feel, the Pyramid model has proven itself that if possess with the right characteristics, it can last a very long time. We hence discussed the underlying characteristics of the social welfare, banking and financial industry and deduced the bigger the size, the modest the profit rate and the simpler the

  1. Complexity bias is our tendency to look at something that is easy to understand or look at it when we are in a state of confusion, and view it as having many parts that are difficult to understand. In another word, human prefer complicated over simple.
  1. This is a philosophical razor that advocates that when presented with competing hypotheses about the same prediction, one should select the solution with the fewest assumptions. In another word, the simplest explanation is usually the right one.

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scheme, the better the outcome. We utilized the learning drew from these industries as the fundamental rules to optimize our Super3M project and achieve the best result and experience to our community members.

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